Brokerage firm Sanford C. Bernstein has raised its 2017 VIP gross gaming revenue (GGR) forecast for Singapore casinos by 18%, citing stronger-than-expected performance from one major resort.
In a research note released Friday, the firm projected that combined VIP revenues at Marina Bay Sands and Resorts World Sentosa will reach nearly SGD 2.35 billion (USD 1.72 billion)—up from the earlier estimate of SGD 2 billion (USD 1.47 billion).
This anticipated increase is expected to offset a modest 1% decline in mass-market table revenue, while slot machine performance should remain largely unchanged.
Marina Bay Sands Retains Market Dominance
The majority of the growth is being driven by Marina Bay Sands (MBS), owned by Las Vegas Sands Corp., rather than Resorts World Sentosa, operated by Genting Singapore. Bernstein expects MBS to maintain its commanding market lead.
“We expect the roughly 38% (Genting) and 62% (Sands) market share split to persist—if not shift further in favor of Marina Bay Sands, particularly in the mass market,” the report stated.
Analysts highlighted several key advantages for MBS, including its prime central location, strong MICE (Meetings, Incentives, Conferences, and Exhibitions) business, and what they described as a superior management team.
The Singapore market has been a bright spot for Las Vegas Sands this year, with the company exceeding quarterly earnings forecasts in July—thanks in part to a 38% surge in Marina Bay Sands’ revenues.
VIP Credit Risks Add Uncertainty
Despite the strong outlook, analysts cautioned that the VIP segment remains unpredictable. Singapore’s smaller pool of high rollers compared to markets like Macau or Las Vegas leads to a more volatile win rate, Bernstein noted.
Additionally, collecting debts from VIP players continues to be a challenge. While Singapore casinos have occasionally succeeded in recovering funds through legal action, the process can be slow and complicated—especially since Singapore lacks reciprocal enforcement of judgments with China, where many VIPs reside.
These credit collection hurdles are particularly concerning for Resorts World Sentosa, with Bernstein suggesting that the operator shows a “likely reluctance to expand VIP credit issuance” due to these risks.
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