Wynn Resorts’ (NASDAQ: WYNN) upcoming Wynn Al Marjan Island resort in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is drawing increased optimism from Wall Street analysts, who view it as a powerful long-term driver for the company’s shares.
On Thursday, UBS analyst Robin Farley upgraded Wynn from “hold” to “buy,” citing the project’s potential to outperform expectations as the first regulated gaming venue in the Middle East. Farley suggested Wynn may be underestimating the property’s earnings potential, projecting adjusted property EBITDAM of $730 million—well above Wynn’s base forecast of $625 million.
“We expect Wynn’s exclusivity in the UAE to provide a meaningful first-mover advantage in attracting ultra-high-net-worth international customers,” Farley said.
UBS raised its price target for Wynn to $147 from $101, implying nearly 16% upside from current levels. The stock, already up more than 47% year-to-date, hit a 52-week high earlier this week.
Wynn UAE Casino Could Exceed Projections
Wynn Resorts has long touted the Al Marjan Island project as a transformative growth opportunity. Farley’s updated forecast places her at the higher end of Wynn’s internal range of $500 million–$800 million in expected earnings.
Industry observers believe the UAE could evolve into the fourth-largest gaming market globally, behind only Macau, Las Vegas, and Singapore—especially if other emirates follow suit in legalizing casinos. Early on, however, Wynn will enjoy a multi-year monopoly, giving it a chance to build strong loyalty among affluent locals and tourists.
Farley also highlighted Wynn’s “gaming-plus” strategy—its focus on luxury experiences, fine dining, and upscale retail beyond the casino floor—as a key differentiator in the UAE. UBS estimates that Wynn Al Marjan Island could be worth $34 per share, compared to just $7–$12 currently priced into Wynn’s stock.
Macau Still Driving Wynn’s Growth
While the UAE project won’t open until early 2027, Wynn’s current performance remains heavily tied to Macau. The market’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) continues to recover strongly, reaching pre-pandemic highs.
UBS increased its Macau GGR growth forecasts to 8% for 2025 and 5% for 2026, projecting Wynn will sustain or strengthen its share among premium mass and VIP players. Farley also boosted her valuation of Wynn’s Macau operations to $76 per share, up from $49.
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