Las Vegas Sands (NYSE: LVS) shares have dropped 36.31% year to date, weighed down by escalating US–China trade tensions that continue to pressure Macau-focused casino operators. The decline underscores the company’s need for fresh catalysts in the near term.
Still, the stock looks inexpensive, according to Deutsche Bank analyst Carlo Santarelli. In a note to clients Tuesday, he reiterated his “buy” rating while lowering his price target from $62 to $59 — an outlook that still suggests a potential 75.6% upside from the April 14 close. Achieving that, he noted, will hinge on several variables, including improved US–China relations and a pickup in Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR).
“We believe these items, coupled with a manageable consensus outlook, position LVS as an inexpensive beat-and-raise story moving through 2025,” Santarelli wrote. “However, the current setup is challenging given the risk of negative revisions.”
With the geopolitical climate unsettled, Macau-dependent US operators such as Sands and Wynn Resorts (NASDAQ: WYNN) are feeling the strain. Both derive significant portions of their revenue and earnings from the region, making them especially exposed to trade-related volatility.
Macau’s outsized influence on LVS
As the majority owner of Sands China, which operates five integrated resorts in Macau, Las Vegas Sands remains heavily tied to the market’s performance. While some industry checks suggest Macau gaming demand is holding up despite trade pressures, concerns remain about how resilient the mass and premium-mass segments — Sands’ core audience — will be if China’s economy softens.
Santarelli noted that macroeconomic challenges and sluggish Macau GGR growth have weighed on LVS shares. He also expects the company saw a slight dip in market share during the first quarter of 2025.
“Management has consistently guided toward a 2Q25 completion of The Londoner,” he said. “Given that, we don’t believe investors expected meaningful market share gains in 1Q25.” He projects LVS’ first-quarter GGR between $1.575 billion and $1.625 billion, with VIP hold likely below typical levels.
Singapore remains a critical growth pillar
Beyond Macau, Las Vegas Sands’ only other property is Marina Bay Sands in Singapore — a key asset that continues to show strong performance. Santarelli described Singapore’s contribution as “largely on autopilot,” noting that while the resort may face difficult year-over-year comparisons in early 2025, the company’s valuation remains compelling.
“At current levels, and adjusted for modest construction in progress, Sands China trades at 8.3x and 7.0x our 2025 and 2026 adjusted EBITDA estimates,” he said. “This implies valuation for Marina Bay Sands at 8.3x 2025 adjusted EBITDA and a very attractive 6.6x for 2026.”
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