Last year, the American Gaming Association projected $35 billion in legal wagers on the NFL season. With the 2025 campaign kicking off Sept. 4, new estimates are expected soon.
For Super Bowl LIX, between the Chiefs and Eagles, Americans were predicted to wager $1.4 billion legally. Oddsmakers like DraftKings’ Johnny Avello—Sports Betting Hall of Famer and longtime Las Vegas bookmaker—have been preparing since the Eagles hoisted the Lombardi Trophy last February.
Casino.org caught up with Avello to discuss how bettors should approach this season.
Roster Cuts Don’t Move Lines
Yesterday’s roster cutdown reduced team rosters to 53 players, leaving nearly 1,200 without jobs. Notable names included QBs Tommy DeVito (Giants) and Kyle Trask (Buccaneers), WR Hunter Renfrow (Panthers), and CB Mike Hilton (Dolphins).
But according to Avello, none of those moves impact the betting market. “Those aren’t players that degrade teams,” he said. “Roster cuts rarely move the needle.”
Quarterback decisions, however, can. Avello pointed to Daniel Jones winning the Colts’ job over Anthony Richardson, which might shift a line—but only by half a point.
How Oddsmakers Adjust
“Our approach is based on team power ratings and home-field advantage,” Avello explained. “After the first couple weeks, we’ll make real adjustments. Preseason has changed—fewer games, fewer starters playing—so we rely on early regular-season results to fine-tune numbers.”
He noted offenses sometimes start rusty, while defenses tend to be sharper. Oddsmakers adapt accordingly.
Teams and Players to Watch
Avello expects heavy betting on favorites like the Bills (+600), Eagles (+700), Ravens (+600), and Chiefs (+850). Second-tier teams such as the Broncos (+2200), Bengals (+2200), Chargers (+2500), Patriots (+6000), and Bears (+4500) could also attract handle.
Player performances from 2024 are influencing lines:
- Jalen Daniels (Commanders) surprised as Offensive Rookie of the Year.
- Joe Burrow (Bengals) won Comeback Player of the Year and is a popular MVP pick.
- Saquon Barkley (Eagles) was bet heavily for first touchdown props last season.
- 49ers struggled without Deebo Samuel (now with Washington) and Christian McCaffrey.
Avello also flagged the Lions as a major betting draw and noted the Browns’ six-game skid to close 2024 as a potential trend for bettors.
Changing Game, Changing Odds
Passing yards per game have declined, with more teams leaning on the run. That shift impacts how oddsmakers approach props and totals.
Among players Avello will monitor closely:
- Russell Wilson with the Giants, as rookie Jaxson Dart pressures him.
- Cameron Ward (Titans rookie QB) and his adjustment without top target Xavier Restrepo.
- Ashton Jeanty (Raiders rookie RB), already generating buzz.
Rule Changes to Consider
Two major changes could affect betting this season:
- Kickoff touchbacks now place the ball at the 35-yard line, boosting offensive field position.
- Overtime rules guarantee both teams a possession, potentially altering totals and spreads.
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