Marina Bay Sands and Resorts World Sentosa have long stood as pillars of profitability in the global casino industry. But a new heavyweight is on the horizon—Japan’s first integrated resort, set to open in Osaka in 2029, could soon challenge Singapore’s supremacy.
Backed by a massive $8.1 billion investment, the Osaka resort will be jointly operated by MGM Resorts International (NYSE: MGM) and Japanese conglomerate Orix, each holding a 40% stake, with the remaining 20% owned by local investors.
Although the launch is still years away, CBRE analyst John DeCree believes the property is poised to become a major force in Asia’s gaming landscape.
“Osaka is one of the world’s largest metropolitan areas, with over 19 million residents and more than 12 million international visitors annually,” DeCree noted. “While Singapore attracts more foreign tourists, Osaka’s vast domestic market more than compensates, thanks to its significantly larger local population.”
In the early years, analysts expect the majority of gross gaming revenue (GGR) to come from Japanese patrons, particularly those from Osaka and surrounding prefectures.
Strategic Location Gives Osaka the Edge
For any casino developer, location is key—and Osaka’s central position could be a game-changer for MGM. While competitors initially eyed Tokyo and Yokohama, both cities faced significant political and public resistance. Osaka, by contrast, embraced the integrated resort concept.
Its strategic location offers accessibility from across the country. “Osaka is just a 90-minute flight or two-hour bullet train ride from Tokyo, opening the door to a broader market with no other domestic casino competition for years,” DeCree added.
With such a large potential customer base, CBRE estimates the Osaka property could eventually bring in $5.75 billion in GGR annually, and generate about $2 billion in EBITDA.
Hotel Capacity a Potential Limitation
One looming concern is whether MGM and its partners will be able to construct a hotel large enough to meet demand from the vast addressable market.
If all goes according to plan, Osaka could soon shift the center of gravity in Asia’s gaming industry—challenging Singapore’s reign and reshaping the regional market.
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