The Super Bowl remains the most heavily wagered single sporting event in the U.S. While it attracts a surge in betting activity, data shows that average wager sizes tend to decline.
A new report from Optimove highlights that the Super Bowl draws a significant number of casual bettors—individuals who may only place bets on the NFL’s biggest game and not engage in regular sports betting. This poses a challenge for sportsbook operators, who must differentiate between one-time bettors and potential long-term customers to allocate resources effectively.
Historical data indicates that while the Super Bowl leads to a 228% spike in daily bettors, the average wager size drops by 50%, emphasizing the need for targeted player segmentation to maximize profitability.
Strategic Focus on the Right Bettors
Football is the most bet-on sport in the U.S., with the NFL dominating the market. However, according to Optimove, gaming operators must focus on identifying high-value bettors.
Data shows that while NFL playoff betting activity rises, the average bet size declines by 26%. Though this drop isn’t as drastic as the Super Bowl’s 50% decrease, it still signals that many bettors are seasonal participants unlikely to convert into long-term customers.
One reason casual bettors flock to the Super Bowl is the extensive betting menu, featuring novelty props like coin toss outcomes and national anthem duration—wagers that appeal to budget-conscious bettors but don’t necessarily drive long-term retention.
Early Super Bowl Betting Trends
Looking ahead to this year’s Super Bowl, set for Sunday, Feb. 9, at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, early betting data from Fanatics Sportsbook reveals:
- 56% of moneyline bets are backing the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs, while 56% of total bets favor the Philadelphia Eagles.
- 79% of the money and 53% of bets are on the Eagles (+1.5).
- With the total set at 49.5 points, 84% of bets and money are on the over, meaning bettors need a combined score of at least 50 to win.
These insights reflect trends among Fanatics Sportsbook users and may not represent the broader market. However, with promotional spending tightening across the industry, sportsbooks must carefully evaluate how to attract and retain the right bettors during the biggest betting event of the year.
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