Thailand’s casino industry, once fully developed, could generate more annual gross gaming revenue (GGR) than Singapore, potentially becoming the world’s third-largest gaming market behind Macau and Las Vegas, according to Citi analysts George Choi, Preenapa Detchsri, and Timothy Chau.
In a recent report, the analysts projected that Thailand’s GGR could reach $9.1 billion annually once the market matures. This figure would place it ahead of Singapore, which recorded $5.11 billion in GGR in 2023 — its strongest year since the pandemic — and ranks third globally today. Thailand has yet to legalize integrated resorts, but policymakers are working to fast-track legislation.
Deputy Finance Minister Julapun Amornvivat recently confirmed that the government aims to submit a revised draft casino bill to the cabinet by the end of 2024. Once approved by the Council of State, the competition for casino licenses is expected to begin quickly.
The $9.1 billion estimate assumes the issuance of at least five licenses, including two in Bangkok and one each in Pattaya, Phuket, and Chiang Mai.
Comparing Thailand and Singapore: A Nuanced View
Although the numbers suggest Thailand could surpass Singapore, comparisons should be made cautiously. Singapore’s market is highly concentrated, with just two integrated resorts — Marina Bay Sands and Resorts World Sentosa — protected by duopoly rights for the next 30 years. There are currently no plans to expand beyond these two properties.
In contrast, Thailand’s potential advantage lies in scale. Launching with four or five venues could naturally push its total GGR above Singapore’s, even without matching its luxury offerings or profitability levels.
Thailand’s Casino Potential Draws Global Interest
Thailand’s appeal goes beyond scale. As a top tourist destination in Southeast Asia, the country is seen as fertile ground for casino development. Citi analysts believe Thailand’s regulatory efforts mirror Singapore’s approach two decades ago, hinting at the possibility of the first casino openings within five to six years.
Furthermore, the proposed 17% gaming tax rate and relatively low operating costs (e.g., wages, utilities) could yield strong operator margins. Citi estimates the EBITDA margin could reach 40% to 50%, translating to about $4.1 billion in annual EBITDA industry-wide.
With limited opportunities for growth elsewhere, Thailand is quickly emerging as a top target for global gaming operators.
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