Wynn Resorts’ (NASDAQ: WYNN) exclusive position in the United Arab Emirates’ nascent casino market could endure longer than initially anticipated, even if that advantage is ultimately temporary.
Wynn Al Marjan Island is scheduled to open in early 2027, and indications suggest the UAE’s General Commercial Gaming Regulatory Authority (GCGRA) has little urgency to approve additional gaming licenses in the near term. That dynamic could meaningfully extend Wynn’s first-mover advantage, according to CBRE.
Momentum around awarding further integrated resort licenses appears to have slowed, potentially giving Wynn at least a multi-year head start in the region, analysts said in a recent note.
The $3.9 billion Wynn Al Marjan Island resort, located in Ras Al Khaimah, has been under construction since last year and will include two casinos. Progress has been swift, with Wynn CEO Craig Billings recently noting that 42 of the planned 70 hotel floors are complete, with crews finishing roughly one floor per week.
Wynn Poised to Capitalize on Early Advantage
In a recent CNBC interview, Billings estimated the UAE could eventually become a $5 billion to $8 billion gaming market, rivaling the roughly $6 billion in annual gross gaming revenue generated by the Las Vegas Strip.
If realized, that would position the UAE as the world’s fourth-largest casino market by GGR, potentially challenging Singapore for third place. While analysts see the lower end of that range as achievable, they also note that reaching the upper bound would likely require more than a single integrated resort.
For now, there’s little visibility on when a second UAE casino license might be issued. MGM Resorts International (NYSE: MGM) is often cited as a logical contender, given that it has reserved casino space at a luxury nongaming resort in Dubai, though no formal plans have been announced. What is increasingly clear, however, is that Wynn stands to extract significant value if its UAE monopoly persists longer than expected.
CBRE added that while a second license would eventually enhance investor confidence in the broader market, a prolonged head start may ultimately prove more valuable to Wynn over the long term.
Share Buybacks Likely to Continue
Wynn’s bullish outlook is also reflected in continued share accumulation. A regulatory filing last week showed Tilman Fertitta increased his stake in the company to 11.8%, reinforcing his position as Wynn’s largest individual shareholder.
The company itself remains an aggressive buyer of its own stock, a strategy CBRE expects to continue until the share price more fully reflects the UAE growth opportunity.
With $813 million remaining under its $1 billion share repurchase authorization as of December 31, Wynn is likely to sustain elevated buybacks through the current program — and potentially beyond — until investors assign greater value to the long-term prospects of Wynn Al Marjan Island, CBRE said.
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